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Day-ahead Load Probabilistic Forecasting Based on Space-time Correction

[ Vol. 14 , Issue. 3 ]

Author(s):

Fei Jin, Xiaoliang Liu, Fangfang Xing, Guoqiang Wen, Shuangkun Wang, Hui He* and Runhai Jiao   Pages 360 - 374 ( 15 )

Abstract:


Background: The day-ahead load forecasting is an essential guideline for power generating, and it is of considerable significance in power dispatch.

Objective: Most of the existing load probability prediction methods use historical data to predict a single area, and rarely use the correlation of load time and space to improve the accuracy of load prediction.

Methods: This paper presents a method for day-ahead load probability prediction based on spacetime correction. Firstly, the kernel density estimation (KDE) is employed to model the prediction error of the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and the residual distribution is obtained. The correlation value is then used to modify the time and space dimensions of the test set's partial period prediction values.

Results: The experiment selected three years of load data in 10 areas of a city in northern China. The MAPE of the two modified models on their respective test sets can be reduced by an average of 10.2% and 6.1% compared to previous results. The interval coverage of the probability prediction can be increased by an average of 4.2% and 1.8% than before.

Conclusion: The test results show that the proposed correction schemes are feasible.

Keywords:

Day-ahead load probabilistic forecasting, long short-term memory, space-time correction, kernel density estimation, short-term load forecast, residual modeling.

Affiliation:

Computer Application and Software, Shandong Electrical Power Company, Weifang Power Supply Company State Grid, Weifang, Computer Application and Software, Shandong Electrical Power Company, Weifang Power Supply Company State Grid, Weifang, Computer Application and Software, Shandong Electrical Power Company, Weifang Power Supply Company State Grid, Weifang, Computer Application and Software, Shandong Electrical Power Company, Weifang Power Supply Company State Grid, Weifang, School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing

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